Alvin’s Analysis – Importance of data & accurate forecasting

As we transition beyond the pandemic era and adapt to emerging trends affecting our Pink Lady® network — including climate change, advancements in technology, new market dynamics, shifts in geopolitics, and the economic impact of inflation — it’s imperative to investigate optimal business strategies to enhance value for all stakeholders and enable well-informed decision-making.

Recognising the significance of precise, timely data, APAL will soon launch live dashboards on the Pink Lady® Brand Hub, that will be accessible to all partners and an important tool for data-driven decision-making. To better equip the total network in making informed data-driven business decisions, APAL will begin by introducing a rolling 12-month volume network shipping report.

Quality data reporting and more accurate forecasts are crucial to drive better outcomes for the global Pink Lady® network. APAL will communicate the availability of these live data dashboards as they become available on the Pink Lady® Brand Hub in the coming months.

A good case in point for meaningful data is the insights gathered from the current season that stress the importance of accurate post-harvest forecasting by each licensee. Identifying optimal timing within our network is crucial to ensure a consistent supply of high-quality Pink Lady® fruit throughout the year.

 

 

Southern Hemisphere Forecast vs. Current and Prior Season, Cumulative

 

 

Reasonably accurate reporting was demonstrated by some exporters this season; however, several licensees need to improve the correctness of their reporting. We saw a strong four months, from June through September, with 20 per cent growth in the SMSP markets; however, several exporters didn’t deliver against forecast towards the end of the season. Disappointingly, this created gaps in the market when demand was there. This was partly influenced by the stronger than forecasted demand from Europe and UK which had attracted much of the volume.

We understand that the forecasts were influenced by early suggestions of a short European Southern Hemisphere season. However, the stronger than expected demand from Europe resulted in shipments diverted away from the SMSP markets. Unfortunately, this left SMSP markets short of Pink Lady® into September and end-of-year.

 

 

Forecast vs. Current and Prior Season, SMSP Markets

 

 

Greater precision in reporting will enable us to set better expectations around supply availability for the season, which will also in turn, assist market managers in effectively planning and executing marketing and promotions.

From June to August 2023, we are seeing promising indications of increasing volume and demand across most key markets. Over these months, volume surpassed previous years during the same period, with a 20 per cent increase in Europe, 10 per cent increase in the UK, 36 per cent increase in Asia, 11 per cent increase in the Middle East, and a remarkable 81 per cent increase in South America during this period. These increases in both volume and demand were achieve despite the challenges of ensuring complete supply with a short crop. However, we may see these supply challenges limit the growth rate between now and the start of the new season.

 

 

Global Volume Flow by Destination, June – August 2023

 

 

The UK is a great success story for Pink Lady®, ensuring a continuous 12-month supply by leveraging both northern and southern hemisphere fruit. By establishing a reliable and diversified supply base, the UK delivers superior quality product year-round, strengthening the confidence of both retailers and consumers and enabling marketing campaigns to be targeted at key events throughout the year.

Eliminating any concerns around supply or fruit quality, the UK’s collaborative relationships with licensees and retailers has resulted in a consistently balanced supply base, while high-impact marketing programs drive consumer demand and brand loyalty for repeat purchase.

Moving forward, it would be beneficial for the network to strive towards operating under the success factors demonstrated by the UK, for all markets.

To safeguard the projected growth across all markets and ensure the development of new markets with the appropriate supply, we are instituting heightened inspection processes and analytics in upcoming seasons. Using data to monitor volume flows and understand quality inspection results we’ll be able to identify the best network partners and most effective licensees who will play an important role in driving sustainable, long-term global growth for the Pink Lady® brand.

 

 

Example of live data dashboard that will be used to help identify the best network partners to drive sustainable growth for Pink Lady®