As we take stock heading into the middle of the southern hemisphere (SH) season, we predict a shortfall in supplying all targeted markets with sufficient high-quality Pink Lady® apples.
This challenge to complete the full season before the start of the northern hemisphere (NH) supply has occurred despite a return to normalised production levels. As of June 2024, the current season volume is approximately 10 per cent ahead of the prior season at 79,556 MT, however, this figure is 8 per cent behind the initial post-harvest forecast.
It has never been more important for SH exporters to work closely with importers and retailers to manage supply and help ensure Pink Lady® apples are in market through to the end of the SH season.
With key emerging markets in full swing and increased consumption levels in the mature markets, there is a great appetite and need for supply towards the end of the SH season across numerous markets.
UK
Early demand for small-sized fruit the UK market has been strong, with SH volume up 31 per cent compared to the previous year and 9 per cent ahead of forecast. Sales in the UK have been positive, with a strong transition into the new SH season fruit. However, stock levels remain low, which may result in a potential shortage of small-sized fruit before the start of the next NH season.
SOUTH AMERICA
The Latam initiative has helped establish a strong foundation for South America as a key destination for Pink Lady supply. This market growth also presents an opportunity for NH supply to support and supplement the SH’s efforts. Primarily due to the successful promotional campaign activity in Brazil, volume is tracking to forecast, and we expect to achieve 100 per cent growth compared to the previous season.
EUROPE
The overall sales forecast for Europe remains the same, approximately 63,000—65,000 tons. However, we have seen a slower-than-expected supply from the SH season into Europe this year, currently tracking approximately 7 per cent below forecast. This has partly been driven by suppliers switching to mitigate risks due to challenges with quality and size availability and disruptions to the logistics supply chain.Despite having a larger NH crop this season, stock levels at the end of July are lower than the same time last year.
Weekly sales were up approximately 17 per cent on average during the latter part of the NH season compared to prior year. This indicates a strong demand for SH supply following an increase in consumption during the NH season compared to the previous year.
Some retailers in Ireland, Germany, Scandinavia and France required SH Pink Lady® fruit on the shelves in early June due to the demand for high-quality fresh fruit of the right size in the market. Meanwhile, other markets continued with domestic European supply until the stock was finished.
Southern hemisphere exporters are encouraged to engage with importers and customers on the planned shipments to Europe for the remainder of the season and account for any potential delays in logistics. Exporters should continue to supply planned volume to Europe through to the start of the NH season, without compromising their commitments to the developing markets in Asia and the Gulf.
SMSP – SOUTH EAST ASIA & MIDDLE EAST
The SMSP markets have seen a 30 per cent increase overall compared to the previous season, primarily driven by India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, volumes remain lower into Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. This has contributed to a 20 per cent shortfall against the initial post-harvest forecast. The early demand from the UK for small-sized SH fruit and the uplift in consumption in Europe have also contributed to this lag, drawing fruit to Europe and the UK before the predicted 1 July SH season kick-off.
AFRICA
Similarly, South African production has primarily focused on supplying the immediate needs of the UK. Challenges with sufficient supply due to weather and colour have resulted in less domestic volume into Africa, currently tracking 30 per cent behind the initial forecast.
While production volume has increased compared to last year, the significant demand and emphasis on quality have challenged the global network’s ability to meet the demand.
As we continue to develop the new and emerging markets, the sustained growth we’re seeing in the UK and Europe highlights that there is also growing demand for Pink Lady® in the established mature markets.
We must implement a considered approach to ensure production can support the expanding network and cater to the consumer preference for Pink Lady® fruit in both the new and mature markets.
Again, we encourage the supply chain to practice good communication and robust planning to secure supply through to the end of the SH season.
For further information on the supply and demand dynamics for the remainder of the SH season, please contact your Master Licensee or email [email protected].
