Early forecasts indicate a reduced crop from the southern hemisphere this season, a result of the adverse weather conditions that have impacted various source territories. Consequently, we expect to see global volume miss growth targets set for this year.
Despite this, we continue to lay the foundations and build demand in new markets with various initiatives planned to support the momentum achieved in the season prior. Licensees are encouraged to reach out to the territory managers to seek information and uncover opportunities in their potential markets. Moving beyond short-term season demand levels, the network will also focus on future-ready capabilities.
(Overall 2022)
Despite a 7.5 per cent decline in global Pink Lady® volume compared to the previous year, Pink Lady® has still outperformed the apple category, which has shrunk by 20 per cent, demonstrating that Pink Lady® apples are still a popular choice among consumers worldwide.
Europe:
Given the harsh macroeconomic environment in 2022, European consumption across most categories has declined compared to the previous period. Not just apples and Pink Lady® alone, but bananas, cherries, kiwi fruit and mangoes have all experienced a double-digit decline. This has impacted current Pink Lady® stock levels, which remain at historically high levels. However, the first quarter of 2023 has seen a significant improvement in Pink Lady® volume in contrast to the general apple category in Europe, although still behind compared to the prior year is a potential signal of one of the varieties first to recover.
(Europe 2023)
Full-year forecast should see a net positive increase in Pink Lady® consumption in 2023 compared to the previous year. Given the higher northern hemisphere stock levels, southern hemisphere licensees are advised to maintain proactive and have regular communication with customers to manage program expectations, changes and needs effectively to maximise efficiencies and quality control during the transition.
UK:
Despite the tough macroeconomic environment impacting inflation and consumer consumption, the UK market has positively contributed to the outperforming trend. The UK’s performance highlights our priority of delivering a quality product to our major mature markets, Europe and the UK, which continue to make up 86 per cent of total volume.
(UK 2022)
Although we saw a decline in volume in the past year partly due to a shortage of quality Pink Lady® product, Pink Lady® in the UK has outperformed not only the general apple category but six out of the twelve fruit categories. The UK market is therefore anticipated to sustain the relatively strong Pink Lady® performance seen at the start of the southern hemisphere season compared to the previous year.
Emerging Markets:
The Pink Lady® emerging markets have played a significant role in driving the positive global trend, highlighting the tremendous potential for growth in these markets. As evidenced by an impressive 51.4 per cent volume increase compared to the previous year, prioritising the development and advancement of these critical alternative markets is vital to sustaining this upward trajectory.
The recent growth we’ve seen in the emerging markets is primarily a result of southern hemisphere supply, and in theory, performance could double with the synergy of the northern hemisphere. With European production growth expected to continue, this provides the opportunity for northern hemisphere suppliers to strategically diversify in line with future-ready supply chain models by expanding new partner networks. Interestingly, this represents less than 1 per cent of the market and therefore bodes well for future growth in the Pink Lady® network.
(Emerging Markets 2022)
Stay tuned for the next analysis article in the coming months for a detailed 2023 season forecast.
Source: IHS, APAL
