Reflecting on the 2024 southern hemisphere season, it’s encouraging to see demand for Pink Lady® branded apples continue to grow across both mature and emerging markets. High-volume, high-value markets including the United Kingdom and Europe remain strong and continue to grow, underscoring the brand’s enduring consumer appeal and premium positioning.
However, as these mature markets pose a great opportunity and command significant volumes of southern hemisphere fruit, ensuring a consistent supply of Pink Lady® branded apples in the emerging markets in Asia and the Gulf remains a challenge. This highlights the strength of the Pink Lady® network, its diversified supply base and varied portfolio of markets, which positions the brand to capitalise on untapped consumer demand and drive sustainable growth. To fully capture these opportunities, securing additional supply to meet the increasing demand will be critical.
Despite adverse weather conditions and poor colour impacting the end of the South African growing season, overall southern hemisphere volume grew by 13 per cent compared to the previous year. This growth reinforces the advantage of the Pink Lady® network’s global supply base, with strong growing seasons in Chile and New Zealand ensuring reliable supply from the southern hemisphere.
Chile was the leading source territory for southern hemisphere production, increasing by 24,000 MT (46 per cent), a significant bounce-back from the previous season’s low of 53,000 MT. This recovery was complemented by targeted efforts to expand the Pink Lady® brand’s presence in LATAM, particularly in Brazil, where a strategic focus resulted in an impressive 193 per cent volume growth. Brazil presents a great opportunity for northern hemisphere supply to continue the momentum, being a new alternative market with a preference for larger-sized fruit.
The UK market had a robust southern hemisphere season, increasing volume by 5,800 MT (15 per cent) through additional volume sourced from New Zealand to offset the shortages from South Africa. However, this redirection of fruit to the UK impacted the available volume of Pink Lady® branded apples in emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia, where the lack of a consistent year-round supply continues to be a barrier to sustaining growth and maximising opportunities.
With limited volume from New Zealand, Asian markets remained flat at 9,500 MT, falling short of the potential 13,500 MT forecast. However, the flat volume was counterbalanced by an increase in value which was evident throughout the season.
The graph below shows a week-by-week growth average of approximately 15 per cent compared to 2023 across the emerging markets, continuing steadily until late August when southern hemisphere stock levels quickly depleted. This growth trajectory had indicated a sales potential of 20,000 MT by the end of November. However, the lack of southern hemisphere shipments from September to December has led to unrealised volume and sales potential, resulting in a missed opportunity to maintain consistent supply to the emerging markets.
The shortfall in South African production also had an impact on the African market, currently 6,800 MT, down 38 per cent on the previous year.
Southern hemisphere exports to Europe increased by 6,600 MT (10 per cent), indicating strong demand for Pink Lady® branded apples and expanded sales opportunities. This growth was achieved through balanced supply, driven by the active management of planned shipments. However, good communication is essential to ensure fruit is ready in the market at the right time to capture sales and protect brand value at the end of the northern hemisphere season.
Increased northern hemisphere supply to the Gulf contributed to increased southern hemisphere sales and import momentum in the market this season. However, a high volume of Cripps Pink in the market constrained potential volume and value growth for the brand, demonstrating the opportunity for Pink Lady® in the Gulf.
Fluctuations in source and destination markets highlight the importance of a diverse supply base and the critical role each source country plays in safeguarding the Pink Lady® brand’s market share. Volume opportunities exist, and the shortfall experienced in some of the emerging markets signals the need for importers and exporters to diversify and establish alternative supply and demand channels, ensuring a balanced supply of fruit across the markets to maximise opportunities and further build the brand.
Looking ahead to the northern hemisphere season
The initial forecast for the northern hemisphere European crop is 240,000 MT, up from the prior season’s forecast of 225,000 MT. However, the final net realised volume last season was 215,500 MT, indicating a projected increase of 25,500 MT (12 percent) over the 2023/24 season actual.
Favourable weather conditions in October have resulted in high packouts, and an excellent first pick indicates good quality which may store well this season. However, larger fruit sizes are noted this season compared to prior years’ large-sized fruit crop. Pink Lady® sales to date have been strong and higher than the prior season, while overall apple category stock levels down 1 per cent. This creates an opportunity for Pink Lady® to position itself as the preferred choice in the category, leveraging its high-quality crop and strong consumer demand to capture market share.
In the USA, apple production is expected to decline by 3 per cent; however, Pink Lady® production is expected to increase by up to 28 per cent, indicating the preference for Pink Lady apples in the US.
As the season continues to progress, we will keep the network informed of updates to the forecast, stock levels and volume trends by market, to ensure balanced supply and encourage a smooth transition for the supply base.
For further information on the information highlighted above or more specific insights on supply and demand dynamics this season, please contact your Master Licensee or email [email protected].
